VZ ATT 5G Nonsense 230Eric Xu, current Huawei Chairman, concludes "consumers would find no 'material difference between 5G & LTE'.” Louise Lucas and Nic Fildes,  Financial Times He added, "Since 4G is robust, we don’t see many use cases or applications we need to support with 5G.” 

Last May, I reported similar thoughts from Telefonica CTO Enrico Blanco. In November, DT CTO Bruno Jacobfeuerborn,  FT/Orange SVP Arnaud Vamparys, and BT CEO Gavin Patterson chimed in. The politicians & marketers screamed "5G Revolution." The engineers knew better. 

Andrus Anders and Roberto Viola at the EU, as well as Jessica Rosenworcel & Ajit Pai in the U.S., are still lying to themselves and too proud to face their errors.

Latency:  Ericsson has promised LTE latency of 9 ms in 2018. AT&T's 5G latency is 9-11 ms.

Speed: 4G LTE 2018 is hundreds of megabits, peaking over a gigabit. 90% of 5G on the way is midband, the same hundreds of megabits. Only 10-20% of the first few years will be millimeter wave, often a gigabit.

Applications: 5G's main application around the world will be more capacity, a good thing for telcos. But most of the other claims are b______. 

  • Connected cars are already on the road, using lidar & radar, not the phone network. Xu points out, “even today we have the technology that can support autonomous driving”.
  • The talk of remote surgery is totally ridiculous unless you believe in operating from the beach. The wireless part of the transmission is only a small part of the speed.   From the local connection to the operating room will be 20-50 ms. Whether the wireless is 2, 5, or 10 ms. is a minor factor. 
  • IoT will rarely require speeds more than 100's of megabits. Most actually is kilobits. If there so many connections that LTE is overwhelmed, a local Wi-Fi or LTE picocell can handle almost everything.
  • VR experts tell me they are fine at 10-15 ms.
  • Outside the U.S., very little fixed wireless requires 5G speeds. AT&T and Verizon will use mmWave where they don't have decent broadband, about 75% of the country in each case. Nearly everywhere else, the telco covers the whole country with landlines.

"5G Revolution" is dead. Millimeter wave and Massive MIMO will be crucial to telcos going forward; midband spectrum will be important, running at LTE speeds and really LTE with a minor software tweak and a press release. Until 2018, it was called TD-LTE.

Verizon's D.C. rep, CTIA, has nonsense claims for 5G, based on 4G applications. 

 

 

 

dave ask

Newsfeed

CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon.

Bharti in India has lost 45M customers who did not want to pay the minimum US#2/month. It's shutting down 3G to free some spectrum for 4G. It is cutting capex, dangerous when the 12 gigabytes/month of use continues to rise.

Huawei in 6 days sold 300,000 5G Mate 20s. Delivery begins on 8/16. 

China has over 50,000 upgraded base stations and may have more than 200,000 by yearend 2019. The growth is astonishing and about to accelerate. China will have more 5G than North America and Europe combined for several years.

5G phone prices are down to $580 in China from Oppo. Headed under $300 in 2020 and driving demand.

No one believed me when I wrote in May, 90% of Huawei U.S. purchases can be rapidly replaced and that Huawei would survive and thrive. Financial results are in, with 23% growth and increased phone sales. It is spending $17B on research in 2019, up > 10%. 

5G phones spotted from Sharp and Sony

NTT DOCOMO will begin "pre-commercial service Sept 20 with over 100 live bases. Officially, the commercial start is 2020.

 More newsfeed

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Welcome  1,800,000 Koreans bought 5G in the first four months. The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80+% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.