AT&T mobile will be distinctly inferior to Verizon for years. The practical difference will likely be small, but AT&T is gambling people won't choose Verizon. While a handful of hotspots will go mmWave, AT&T's Andrew Fuetsch said mmWave will only be used in hotspots. Most of the "5G" network will be low and mid-band.

      Over strong objections of their technical staff, AT&T has decided not to build millimeter wave 5G widely. Instead, they will use lower spectrum bands with 70% to 90% less capacity. 

      Almost certainly, the United States will now have only one high-performance 5G network; almost everything else will be 4G LTE with a software tweak and a massive publicity campaign. Every engineer building networks knew this was hogwash. MWC in Barcelona was dominated by emperors without clothes. See.

     What seemed like silly semantics and a cheap pr campaign is now proving to have real-world consequences.

AT&T has decided customers will not understand the difference between their 4G-style network and Verizon's true gigabit mmWave. If AT&T was not able to call their relatively slow network "5G," they almost definitely would have built mmWave. 

    The U.S. government is one of the only non-corporate members of the 3GPP standards group. We should have been screaming holy hell early this year when 3GPP decided to call almost all the 4G set to be deployed 5G.

     AT&T had been a pioneer in 5G research when 5G meant mmWave capable of going to 20 gigabits. They offered $2B for the Straight Path 28 GHz spectrum but were outbid by Verizon. Until now, AT&T told us they would build widely in the 39 GHz spectrum they own.

     The cutback by AT&T demonstrates that Ajit Pai also made a severe error allowing Verizon to purchase 800 MHz of Straight Path spectrum. 5G mmWave is designed to work well in 400 MHz and Verizon would have been willing to let the second 400 MHz go to someone else, probably AT&T. 

   Today's 5G gear is designed for 28 GHz; the European 26 GHz is not supported by the new Qualcomm modem, although that will probably be remedied soon. No phone is likely to support AT&T's 39 GHz unless specially ordered.

    The soon to be auctioned 24 GHz is also unsupported. That means it is unlikely to be used for years. Pai will declare it a great victory, but the government would collect ?billions more if the auction were delayed.

     Fortunately, 4G and 4G-like networks will provide enough 

dave askOn Oct 1, Verizon turned on the first $20B 5G mmWave network with extraordinary hopes. The actual results the first four months have been dismal. Good engineers tell me that will change. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 4X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.

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5G Why Verizon thinks differently and what to do about it is a new report I wrote for STL Partners and their clients.

STL Partners, a British consulting outfit I respect, commissioned me to ask why. That report is now out. If you're a client, download it here. If not, and corporate priced research is interesting to you, ask me to introduce you to one of the principals.

It was fascinating work because the answers aren't obvious. Lowell McAdam's company is spending $20B to cover 30M+ homes in the first stage. The progress in low & mid-band, both "4G" and "5G," has been remarkable. In most territories, millimetre wave will not be necessary to meet expected demand.