100 Federal Reserve Note 230A report in Digitimes suggests premium 5G phones will cost about US$100 more than comparable 

The production cost for 5G phones as compared to their 4G predecessors should increase by less than US$80 per unit, including an increase by almost US$50 for 5G modem chips and application processors, and the remaining US$30 for new antennas, PCBs and other materials, the sources indicated.

Digitimes stories like this have usually been accurate in the past. This is much less than the US$200 additional estimated by OPPO CEO Pete Lau.  

Dan Adams of Deloitte estimates about a million 5G phones will ship in 2019.

That's less than 1/10th of 1% of his 1.5 billion estimate for phones worldwide. It's really hard to come up with a figure because it is dependent on marketing decisions.

5G production capability should be higher than that, at least in the second half of the year. TSMC's 7 nm process is currently the only source of the chips, but Samsung is getting on track. TSMC is configuring new EUV (Extreme Ultra-Violet) steppers that should raise capacity significantly later this year.

Telcos have not yet decided how much to charge for the phones. Some may price high as they improve their 5G network. Others may want to grab market share with low prices.

We'll all be watching. 

dave ask


Rethinking Jan 27: Coronavirus could invalidate all projections. I reported on AIDS for 2 years. This could be worse because it spreads in air. Let us hope and pray.

Details on all 5G phones, as prices drop to $285 ** All actual 5G networks worldwide ** Facebook ordered to repost Italian fascist page. ** Apple China sales down 35%** Qorvo sees 300M 5G 2020 & 750M 2023 mmWave <10%

** Bharti demands India Gov more than double prices and enforce cartel. Sunil Mittal "Situation is dire. It is a matter of survival for everyone." ** Wi-Fi 6 meets ITU 5G criteria @stephenjcrowley ** Samsung $8B for Chinese memory plants ** Morgan paying billions for Altice fiber

Dec 10 Sprint bringing $300-500 5G phones to US 2020. Nokia, Lenovo, HMD ** H., Apple, and AMD doing 5 nm test runs on TSMC's 5 nm. Early results are 15-30% better than 7 nm ** AT&T low-band 5G built to >65% US. Speeds slower than 4G at launch. ** 

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps ** CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon. ** Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  


Welcome  Asia is installing hundreds of thousands of 5G radios and adding 5G subs by the tens of millions. The west is far behind. 200,000,000 in 2020

The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

I'm Dave Burstein, Editor. I've been reporting telecom since 1999. I love to hear from readers and say thank you when you find an error. daveb@dslprime.com

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