Miao Wei VR 230

Minister Miao Wei, left, perhaps the most powerful man on the Internet, brought greetings from the President to a VR conference. "Virtual reality technology is gradually maturing, expanding human perception and changing product forms and service models. China is committed to achieving high-quality development and promoting the wide application of new technologies, new products, new formats and new models in various fields."

The First Secretary's support for VR could be a factor in China's decision about how to build 5G networks. China is going to install over a million 5G radios, mostly between 2020 and 2023. They may or may not put servers at the cell. The decision will be made in the next few months.

AR/VR is the only consumer application that really needs low latency and might drive volume in the next few years. If the Party Secretary and the Minister want VR, that could tip the decision to the faster (<15 ms) technology. No one in the West is going that low for years.

Expert opinions differ on whether VR needs less than 10 ms latency or works well up to about 20 ms. 5G alone is not enough to lower latency to that level. On-network cloud servers are required to bring latency below 25 ms. DT, Verizon, and many others are planning servers to bring latency down to 15-25 ms. Not all will build on-network clouds. Those that do build a cloud will probably put servers further back in the network, each supporting many cells.

5G's current "air interface" has about 10 ms latency. If you put servers on all cells, the latency only goes up by a few milliseconds. The cost is o high. A Level 2 server, one to three hops away, can get to 15 ms or a little more. Many, including AT&T, are testing such systems. BT estimates you could cover the UK with about 1,000 servers. Other carriers are planning far fewer servers, at least for now, further from the towers. That will add another 5-10 ms.

China is generally considered far ahead of the West in AR & VR. Americans, even informed ones, are astounded when they see what's happening in China. Some VR apps come from small individual creators, but giants like Tencent and China Unicom are spending heavily.  (In Google translation.)

Congratulations

On the occasion of the opening of the 2018 World VR (Virtual Reality) Industry Conference, I would like to extend my warmest congratulations to the convening of the conference! I would like to extend my sincere welcome to all the guests and people from all walks of life!

At present, a new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation are booming, and virtual reality technology is gradually maturing, expanding human perception and changing product forms and service models. China is committed to achieving high-quality development and promoting the wide application of new technologies, new products, new formats and new models in various fields. China is willing to strengthen international exchanges and cooperation in the fields of virtual reality, share development opportunities, share innovation achievements, and strive to create a smarter and better future for human society.

It is hoped that all parties concerned will focus on the theme of the conference, strengthen exchanges, increase consensus, expand cooperation, and work together to promote the development of related industries to better benefit the people of all countries.

I wish the conference a complete success!

Xi Jinping

Xi Jinping

 

dave ask

Newsfeed

Vivo is selling new the iQOO 5G premium quality phone for US$536.

Lei Jun Xiaomi "5G to have explosive growth starting from Q2 2020"5G to have explosive growth starting from Q2 2020" I say sooner

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps

CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon.

Bharti in India has lost 45M customers who did not want to pay the minimum USS2/month. It's shutting down 3G to free some spectrum for 4G. It is cutting capex, dangerous when the 12 gigabytes/month of use continues to rise.

Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  

China has over 50,000 upgraded base stations and may have more than 200,000 by yearend 2019. The growth is astonishing and about to accelerate. China will have more 5G than North America and Europe combined for several years.

5G phone prices are down to $580 in China from Oppo. Headed under $300 in 2020 and driving demand.

No one believed me when I wrote in May, 90% of Huawei U.S. purchases can be rapidly replaced and that Huawei would survive and thrive. Financial results are in, with 23% growth and increased phone sales. It is spending $17B on research in 2019, up > 10%. 

5G phones spotted from Sharp and Sony

NTT DOCOMO will begin "pre-commercial service Sept 20 with over 100 live bases. Officially, the commercial start is 2020.

 More newsfeed

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Welcome  1,800,000 Koreans bought 5G in the first four months. The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80+% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.