China will deploy more 5G radios in 2019 than the entire Western world. A low estimate is 100,000. 200,000 is quite possible. I'm closely watching as the information trickles out to understand the market dynamics. Shanghai is just getting going, with 2,000 radios in place. Beijing already has 5,500. Each of the three telcos is also actively growing 5G in a dozen or more other cities. 

2020 will see 600,000 to 800,000 base stations according to Wei Liping of MIIT.  As 5G phone prices go down towards US$300, many of the 300,000,000+ bought each year in China will be 5G.

The U.S. war on Huawei is unlikely to hold the country back on base stations. FPGAs are the only important base station part that may be dependent on U.S. suppliers. FPGAs efficiently replace a small circuit board of chips. Huawei already has a dedicated chip for base stations. At worst, FPGAs can be replaced by a small circuit board.  DigiTimes reports Huawei is actively redesigning many boards to replace U.S. parts and meanwhile is slowing orders.

(Huawei will have a harder time replacing U.S. sourced radio frequency components for phones.

Qorvo, Skyworks, and AVAGO have done a remarkable job of miniaturizing RF components. Huawei phones might become slightly larger if the U.S. parts can't be sourced, perhaps 1/4 of an inch. The absence of Google apps will hurt phone sales in Europe. Huawei is currently cut off from Google applications, although its Android replacement, Ark, is all that's needed for China.)  

China Tower's 2.2 million cells will be upgraded very quickly.

dave ask


Rethinking Jan 27: Coronavirus could invalidate all projections. I reported on AIDS for 2 years. This could be worse because it spreads in air. Let us hope and pray.

Details on all 5G phones, as prices drop to $285 ** All actual 5G networks worldwide ** Facebook ordered to repost Italian fascist page. ** Apple China sales down 35%** Qorvo sees 300M 5G 2020 & 750M 2023 mmWave <10%

** Bharti demands India Gov more than double prices and enforce cartel. Sunil Mittal "Situation is dire. It is a matter of survival for everyone." ** Wi-Fi 6 meets ITU 5G criteria @stephenjcrowley ** Samsung $8B for Chinese memory plants ** Morgan paying billions for Altice fiber

Dec 10 Sprint bringing $300-500 5G phones to US 2020. Nokia, Lenovo, HMD ** H., Apple, and AMD doing 5 nm test runs on TSMC's 5 nm. Early results are 15-30% better than 7 nm ** AT&T low-band 5G built to >65% US. Speeds slower than 4G at launch. ** 

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps ** CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon. ** Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  


Welcome  Asia is installing hundreds of thousands of 5G radios and adding 5G subs by the tens of millions. The west is far behind. 200,000,000 in 2020

The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

I'm Dave Burstein, Editor. I've been reporting telecom since 1999. I love to hear from readers and say thank you when you find an error.

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