China will deploy more 5G radios in 2019 than the entire Western world. A low estimate is 100,000. 200,000 is quite possible. I'm closely watching as the information trickles out to understand the market dynamics. Shanghai is just getting going, with 2,000 radios in place. Beijing already has 5,500. Each of the three telcos is also actively growing 5G in a dozen or more other cities. 

2020 will see 600,000 to 800,000 base stations according to Wei Liping of MIIT.  As 5G phone prices go down towards US$300, many of the 300,000,000+ bought each year in China will be 5G.

The U.S. war on Huawei is unlikely to hold the country back on base stations. FPGAs are the only important base station part that may be dependent on U.S. suppliers. FPGAs efficiently replace a small circuit board of chips. Huawei already has a dedicated chip for base stations. At worst, FPGAs can be replaced by a small circuit board.  DigiTimes reports Huawei is actively redesigning many boards to replace U.S. parts and meanwhile is slowing orders.

(Huawei will have a harder time replacing U.S. sourced radio frequency components for phones.

Qorvo, Skyworks, and AVAGO have done a remarkable job of miniaturizing RF components. Huawei phones might become slightly larger if the U.S. parts can't be sourced, perhaps 1/4 of an inch. The absence of Google apps will hurt phone sales in Europe. Huawei is currently cut off from Google applications, although its Android replacement, Ark, is all that's needed for China.)  

China Tower's 2.2 million cells will be upgraded very quickly.

dave ask

Newsfeed

Vivo is selling new the iQOO 5G premium quality phone for US$536.

Lei Jun Xiaomi "5G to have explosive growth starting from Q2 2020"5G to have explosive growth starting from Q2 2020" I say sooner

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps

CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon.

Bharti in India has lost 45M customers who did not want to pay the minimum USS2/month. It's shutting down 3G to free some spectrum for 4G. It is cutting capex, dangerous when the 12 gigabytes/month of use continues to rise.

Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  

China has over 50,000 upgraded base stations and may have more than 200,000 by yearend 2019. The growth is astonishing and about to accelerate. China will have more 5G than North America and Europe combined for several years.

5G phone prices are down to $580 in China from Oppo. Headed under $300 in 2020 and driving demand.

No one believed me when I wrote in May, 90% of Huawei U.S. purchases can be rapidly replaced and that Huawei would survive and thrive. Financial results are in, with 23% growth and increased phone sales. It is spending $17B on research in 2019, up > 10%. 

5G phones spotted from Sharp and Sony

NTT DOCOMO will begin "pre-commercial service Sept 20 with over 100 live bases. Officially, the commercial start is 2020.

 More newsfeed

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Welcome  1,800,000 Koreans bought 5G in the first four months. The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80+% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.