There now can be no doubt that fixed wireless, mostly 5G, will be a viable business in the right locations. Today's wireless has enormous capacity, enough to supply the broadband needs of a significant population. It's better than most DSL and a workable alternative to cable in many locations. Traffic demand is falling, with Cisco predicting the U.S. will fall to 31% growth in 2021. 

John Legere of T-Mobile committed to 9.5 million in-home broadband subs by 2024 in order to get FCC approval of the Sprint takeover. Brett Feldman of Goldman Sachs estimated Verizon will have 8 million by 2023. AT&T CEO says they expect a fixed market to grow in a few years. Wireless ISPs already have over a million.  Starry and others are growing, In five years, at least a fifth of the 120 million U.S. homes will be connected wirelessly.  

Three in the UK and Sunrise in Switzerland are also promoting fixed. Deutsche Telekom and many others are actively selling fixed in rural areas, replacing or supplementing DSL. 

When a carrier has a good landline offering, fixed will be a small niche. Orange in France and Spain will have fibre to most of the country, leaving few areas where fixed wireless makes sense. Similarly, a non-incumbent with a good deal on unbundling rarely will look to sell wireless to the home.

Since 2016 or before, wireless technology has been improving at a faster rate than traffic demand. Carrier aggregation easily doubles the spectrum a telco can use. Massive MIMO raises the capacity of the right spectrum by three to five times. 256 QAM is worth another 30%, 5G NR, SON, and a dozen other technologies also make a difference. The lobbyists think its never enough, but most countries are or soon will add 100's of MHz of new spectrum. Depending on the starting point and how you measure, wireless capacity is going up 10 to 25 times within the current capex budget.

The result: telcos can't sell all they can deliver in most of their territory and need new products.

 

dave ask

@davescomm

Rethinking Jan 27: Coronavirus could invalidate all projections. I reported on AIDS for 2 years. This could be worse because it spreads in air. Let us hope and pray.

Details on all 5G phones, as prices drop to $285 ** All actual 5G networks worldwide ** Facebook ordered to repost Italian fascist page. ** Apple China sales down 35%** Qorvo sees 300M 5G 2020 & 750M 2023 mmWave <10%

** Bharti demands India Gov more than double prices and enforce cartel. Sunil Mittal "Situation is dire. It is a matter of survival for everyone." ** Wi-Fi 6 meets ITU 5G criteria @stephenjcrowley ** Samsung $8B for Chinese memory plants ** Morgan paying billions for Altice fiber

Dec 10 Sprint bringing $300-500 5G phones to US 2020. Nokia, Lenovo, HMD ** H., Apple, and AMD doing 5 nm test runs on TSMC's 5 nm. Early results are 15-30% better than 7 nm ** AT&T low-band 5G built to >65% US. Speeds slower than 4G at launch. ** 

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps ** CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon. ** Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  

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Welcome  Asia is installing hundreds of thousands of 5G radios and adding 5G subs by the tens of millions. The west is far behind. 200,000,000 in 2020

The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

I'm Dave Burstein, Editor. I've been reporting telecom since 1999. I love to hear from readers and say thank you when you find an error. daveb@dslprime.com

Also see

analysisbranch.com,

fastnet.news

huaweireport.com