Dave 20GBPSTelcos report costs going down 40% to 60%. That allows T-Mobile U.S. & Sprint to offer "unlimited" with only a few gotchas. Competition and regulation will determine who is actually served. 

Technology on the market can deliver 10X to 25X at reasonable cost; Weak competition or weak regulation could hold this back. Speeds over 50 megabits with a cap high enough to watch 100 hours/month of HD TV can be delivered in most of the developed world. The engineers can deliver. Marconi Fellow Paulraj tells me Massive MIMO will bring many of the same benefits to most rural areas, including in emerging nations. Extreme rural areas - the last 1-3% - may not be as fortunate.

Giga LTE offers about a gigabit to the cell site. Beginning this year, phones with a good connection will get 100-300 megabits down. Phones on the cell edge and behind walls are seeing a 4X improvement as well. Gig LTE combines more antennas (4x4 MIMO,) more spectrum (60-80 MHz,) and more bits squeezed in (256 QAM.) Gig LTE is five or six times as much as LTE started at and about three times the capacity of most advanced systems in 2016. The meter in the picture showing about one gig at Huawei's BBF in Tokyo Nov 2016 is Gig LTE. Two gig has been demonstrated by British Telecom. Explained for non-engineers here.

Massive MIMO, using as many as 128 antennas, by September 2016 was deployed at 100 cells of Softbank Japan

and by China Mobile. Both told me at the Huawei BBW in Tokyo the results were excellent, and they are moving on thousands. There are many refinements to come.  3X-10X

Half a dozen other technologies are starting to have an impact. For example, Telus CTO Ibrahim Gedeon thinks SON & HetNets make his small cell deployments much more efficient. He tells me S&H may make more difference in the next few years than the more publicized advances. There are plenty of claims of the size of coming improvements but no solid data from the field. The effect will not be small.  

Most of these tools work together, so multiply the impact of each to get a total. Several are deploying in volume in 2017, but upgrading large telco networks takes time. We don't yet know how to get maximum results or integrate the different pieces. The results are already dramatic. Verizon's David Small estimates his costs are going down 40% per year. I have data from Telefonica that implies a 60% improvement last year. 

Most believe it will be four to seven years before we see a large effect in mobile from 5G millimeter wave (mmWave) high frequency. Leading researcher Ted Rappaport expects results sooner. The 20 gigabits at the Huawei demo is exciting, but almost everyone thinks large deployments on mobile will wait until next decade. Giant China Mobile is among the most advanced but only expects 1% of its network upgraded in 2020. Verizon plans to test mmWave fixed to several hundred homes in 2017. mmWave to phones is two to four years away. The advanced technologies I'm discussing here have a bill of materials cost similar to what costs were in 2011. The vendors out with the newest technology hope to get a premium. It may take 2-4 years for the right price to emerge. 

 
 
I define "reasonable cost" as fitting into today's capital spending. I don't yet understand how this will play out in extreme rural areas, where fewer than 50 homes are within reach of backhaul. 
 

dave ask

Newsfeed

The 3.3-4.2 spectrum should be shared, not exclusively used by one company, concludes an important U.S. Defense Innovation Board report. If more wireless broadband is important, sharing is of course right because shared networks can yield far more

It does work! Verizon's mmWave tests over a gigabit in the real world. 
The $669 OnePlus 7 Pro outclasses the best Apples and probably the new Galaxy 10 or Huawei P30 Pro. Optical zoom, three cameras, liquid cooling, Qualcomm 855 and more.
Korea at 400,000 5G May 15. Chinese "pre-commercial" signing customers, 60,000-120,000 base stations in 2019, million+ remarkable soon. 
5G phones Huawei Mate 20, Samsung Galaxy 10, ZTE Nubia, LG V50, and OPPO are all on sale at China Unicom. All cost US$1,000 to 1,500 before subsidy. Xiaomi promises US$600.
Natural monopoly? Vodafone & Telecom Italia to share 5G, invite all other companies to join.
Huawei predicts 5G phones for US$200 in 2021, $300 even earlier
NY Times says "5G is dangerous" is a Russian plot. Really.
Althiostar raised US$114 million for a virtual RAN system in the cloud. Rakuten, Japan's new #4, is using it and invested.
Ireland is proposing a US$3 billion subsidy for rural fibre that will be much too expensive. Politics.
Telefonica Brazil has 9M FTTH homes passed and will add 6M more within two years. Adjusted for population, that's more than the U.S. The CEO publicly urged other carriers to raise prices together.
CableLabs and Cisco have developed Low Latency XHaul (LLX) with 5-15 ms latency for 5G backhaul,  U.S. cable is soon to come in very strong in wireless. Details 
Korea Telecom won 100,000 5G customers in the first month. SK & LG added 150,000 more. KT has 37,500 cells. planning 90% of the country by yearend. 
The Chinese giants expect 60,000 to 90,000 5G cells by the end of 2019.
China Telecom's Yang Xin warns, "Real large-scale deployment of operators' edge computing may be after 2021." Customers are hard to find.
Reliance Jio registered 97.5% 4G availability across India in Open Signal testing. Best in world.

More newsfeed

----------

Welcome On Oct 1, 2019 Verizon turned on the first $20B 5G mmWave network with extraordinary hopes. The actual early results have been dismal. Good engineers tell me that will change. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.