Oreo 230~40M sold in Q3, increasing. With > 400M Indians connected by obsolete phones, India has become the second largest smartphone market and is gaining share against China. With monthly prices often under $5 and phones subsidized to $25-35, Deloitte estimates 350M more Indians will be connected by 2020. Reliance Jio added over 100M customers on 4G smartphones in the last year; the remaining survivors, especially Bharti & Vodafone, are scrambling to catch up.

Google's new Oreo Go version of Android is bringing the cost of low-end 4G phones to about $30, with the first units expected from Indian manufacturer Micromax by the end of the month. The inexpensive phones will be a natural way to connect in the amazing 625,000 villages being fibered by BharatNet.

Google CEO Sundar Pichai recently predicted $30 smartphones will lead to market takeoff in countries like India. Oreo Go is designed to work with less than a gigabit of memory and deliver adequate performance using very cheap processor chips. Google has optimized their primary apps to run well on Oreo and hopes others will follow.

Canalys analyst Ishan Dutt predicts Xiaomi will overtake Samsung to be the best selling brand. His > 40M sales estimate is similar to the IDC estimate. U.S. sales were similar but the U.S. market is close to saturation. 

The Chinese vendors, including Oppo & Vivo but not Huawei, have massively taken market share from Indian companies like Micromax and Karbonn the last few years. The Indians weren't ready when Jio drove the market to 4G phones, but now are looking for market share.

The Chinese have been moving production to India to beat 15% tariffs and find lower labor costs. Apple has talked a good game, but is holding out for enormous tariff and tax subsidies from India. The government is resisting; they believe India is an attractive enough market Apple will come in anyway, especially as India is raising tariffs as part of the "Made in India" program. 

 

India overtakes US to become second largest smartphone market

 Sales top 40 million units for first time; Xiaomi likely to overtake Samsung soon

Palo Alto, Shanghai, Singapore and Reading (UK) – Thursday, 26 October 2017


After a wobble in Q2 2017, India’s smartphone market recovered quickly, with shipments growing 23% year on year in Q3 2017 to reach just over 40 million units. India has now overtaken the United States to become the world’s second largest smartphone market after China. Samsung and Xiaomi, which shipped 9.4 million and 9.2 million units respectively, accounted for almost half of the total market as the top five vendors continued to post strong growth in Q3 2017.

“This growth comes as a relief to the smartphone industry. Doubts about India’s market potential are clearly dispelled by this result,” said Canalys Research Analyst Ishan Dutt. “There are close to 100 mobile device brands sold in India, with more vendors arriving every quarter. In addition, India has one of the most complex channel landscapes, but with low barriers to entry. Growth will continue. Low smartphone penetration and the explosion of LTE are the main drivers.”

Despite posting excellent results, the market continues to concentrate, with the top five vendors (Samsung, Xiaomi, Vivo, Oppo and Lenovo) now accounting for 75% of total shipments in India. Samsung shipped 9.4 million smartphones, almost 30% more than in Q3 last year. Second-placed Xiaomi increased shipments by over 290% to 9.2 million units. “Xiaomi’s growth is a clear example of how a successful online brand can effectively enter the offline market while maintaining low overheads,” said Canalys Analyst Rushabh Doshi. “But Xiaomi focuses on the low end. It struggles in the mid-range (devices priced between INR15,000 and INR20,000 [US$230 and US$310]), where Samsung, Oppo and Vivo are particularly strong. Nevertheless, we predict Xiaomi’s continued go-to-market innovations will allow it to overtake Samsung within a couple of quarters.”mpared with Q3 2016, impressive growth in a market that is skewed toward low-end smartphones.

After a rocky start to GST, the market has shown strong signs of stability in Q3, with most of the channel adapting to the new rules on time. “The Indian economy is proving very strong in the second half of 2017, now that the twin shocks of GST and demonetization are behind it,” added Doshi. “Reduced indirect taxes have added new equity to the market, with distributors and retailers able to serve areas beyond their home regions as inter-state operations become easier. As the infrastructure matures, consolidation in distribution is inevitable.”

dave ask

Newsfeed

The 3.3-4.2 spectrum should be shared, not exclusively used by one company, concludes an important U.S. Defense Innovation Board report. If more wireless broadband is important, sharing is of course right because shared networks can yield far more

It does work! Verizon's mmWave tests over a gigabit in the real world. 
The $669 OnePlus 7 Pro outclasses the best Apples and probably the new Galaxy 10 or Huawei P30 Pro. Optical zoom, three cameras, liquid cooling, Qualcomm 855 and more.
Korea at 400,000 5G May 15. Chinese "pre-commercial" signing customers, 60,000-120,000 base stations in 2019, million+ remarkable soon. 
5G phones Huawei Mate 20, Samsung Galaxy 10, ZTE Nubia, LG V50, and OPPO are all on sale at China Unicom. All cost US$1,000 to 1,500 before subsidy. Xiaomi promises US$600.
Natural monopoly? Vodafone & Telecom Italia to share 5G, invite all other companies to join.
Huawei predicts 5G phones for US$200 in 2021, $300 even earlier
NY Times says "5G is dangerous" is a Russian plot. Really.
Althiostar raised US$114 million for a virtual RAN system in the cloud. Rakuten, Japan's new #4, is using it and invested.
Ireland is proposing a US$3 billion subsidy for rural fibre that will be much too expensive. Politics.
Telefonica Brazil has 9M FTTH homes passed and will add 6M more within two years. Adjusted for population, that's more than the U.S. The CEO publicly urged other carriers to raise prices together.
CableLabs and Cisco have developed Low Latency XHaul (LLX) with 5-15 ms latency for 5G backhaul,  U.S. cable is soon to come in very strong in wireless. Details 
Korea Telecom won 100,000 5G customers in the first month. SK & LG added 150,000 more. KT has 37,500 cells. planning 90% of the country by yearend. 
The Chinese giants expect 60,000 to 90,000 5G cells by the end of 2019.
China Telecom's Yang Xin warns, "Real large-scale deployment of operators' edge computing may be after 2021." Customers are hard to find.
Reliance Jio registered 97.5% 4G availability across India in Open Signal testing. Best in world.

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Welcome On Oct 1, 2019 Verizon turned on the first $20B 5G mmWave network with extraordinary hopes. The actual early results have been dismal. Good engineers tell me that will change. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.