Cole Crawford at Vapor IO is building a network designed to bypass the telco entirely. He's installed an "aggregation box" a hop or three from the towers. Iyad Terazi's Federated Wireless is ready to connect it with a dedicated radio in 3.5 GHz shared spectrum. That's natural for certain kinds of IoT. The speed will be much better than the carriers. Interesting stuff. Packet, MobiledgeX and others are ready with the hardware and software that will make it work. 

Cole gave me reasons he thought the telcos should buy in. Maybe. It's also possible services like IoT create enough of a niche to become profitable. Vapor says a single hub could serve hundreds of towers, which would bring the cost down. (I've asked how that would affect latency and am waiting to hear from the company. I would guess 3-8 ms with high performance gear but do not have data.)

What if Google, Amazon and a few others jump in to bypass the telcos? There's no evidence that's in their plans, but interesting talk. The software and programming talent at the web giants outclasses the ability of anywhere else. Google's network is the largest civilian system in history. It works well all around the world at an amazingly low cost. The scale dwarfs Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone, or AT&T. 

Zachary Smith of Packet supplies "bare metal" hardware for distributed computing. He's working with Vapor and also bigger companies like Sprint. Zac believes, "Technology enabled enterprises who use software + hardware as their weapon to delivery their value, will be dominant in the next decade." That could be right, although I wouldn't want to underestimate the ability of the telcos to fight back.

The world has gone to software, AI, big data, and the tools that start there.  Google is in a remarkable situation: they win even if they take a moderate loss. The carriers will fight back by improving their own networks. Anything that improves networks helps Google sell advertising.  

Other prospects include cable giants Comcast and Charter. Both have enormous teams working on their soon come 5G network. Currently, they are reselling Verizon, so expensive their losses are into the US$ billions. The easy assumption was that Charter and Comcast would work together, as they do with near nationwide Wi-Fi. That deal isn't final yet, however, nor do the two companies cover all the country.  

My first thought was video was unlikely to pay more than the (extremely low) rates of CDN's like Akamai. Once the movie starts, the latency is unimportant. Your home Wi-Fi is far more likely the culprit if you have a problem. Channel changing and lookup will be crisper, but I didn't think that would be sufficient unless the Edge Cloud owners would come close to CDN pricing.
     The market dynamics could change that, especially when AT&T's Time Warner and DirecTV extend their video on demand over the top. Subscription VOD is exploding. Netflix, Amazon, and Hulu are all growing rapidly. Disney, Comcast, and Time Warner will soon be fighting for customers. All will be looking for an advantage. 
Comcast and Charter have similar choices. Almost certainly they will soon build a 5G network, probably in 3.5-4.2 GHz. Comcast is already installing remote phys throughout its network. (Remote phys are small units, very close to the customer, which will enable upstream into the gigabits.) 
Would that win customers for video? I don't know, but I'm sure some are thinking about it. 
   

 

dave ask

Newsfeed

The 3.3-4.2 spectrum should be shared, not exclusively used by one company, concludes an important U.S. Defense Innovation Board report. If more wireless broadband is important, sharing is of course right because shared networks can yield far more

It does work! Verizon's mmWave tests over a gigabit in the real world. 
The $669 OnePlus 7 Pro outclasses the best Apples and probably the new Galaxy 10 or Huawei P30 Pro. Optical zoom, three cameras, liquid cooling, Qualcomm 855 and more.
Korea at 400,000 5G May 15. Chinese "pre-commercial" signing customers, 60,000-120,000 base stations in 2019, million+ remarkable soon. 
5G phones Huawei Mate 20, Samsung Galaxy 10, ZTE Nubia, LG V50, and OPPO are all on sale at China Unicom. All cost US$1,000 to 1,500 before subsidy. Xiaomi promises US$600.
Natural monopoly? Vodafone & Telecom Italia to share 5G, invite all other companies to join.
Huawei predicts 5G phones for US$200 in 2021, $300 even earlier
NY Times says "5G is dangerous" is a Russian plot. Really.
Althiostar raised US$114 million for a virtual RAN system in the cloud. Rakuten, Japan's new #4, is using it and invested.
Ireland is proposing a US$3 billion subsidy for rural fibre that will be much too expensive. Politics.
Telefonica Brazil has 9M FTTH homes passed and will add 6M more within two years. Adjusted for population, that's more than the U.S. The CEO publicly urged other carriers to raise prices together.
CableLabs and Cisco have developed Low Latency XHaul (LLX) with 5-15 ms latency for 5G backhaul,  U.S. cable is soon to come in very strong in wireless. Details 
Korea Telecom won 100,000 5G customers in the first month. SK & LG added 150,000 more. KT has 37,500 cells. planning 90% of the country by yearend. 
The Chinese giants expect 60,000 to 90,000 5G cells by the end of 2019.
China Telecom's Yang Xin warns, "Real large-scale deployment of operators' edge computing may be after 2021." Customers are hard to find.
Reliance Jio registered 97.5% 4G availability across India in Open Signal testing. Best in world.

More newsfeed

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Welcome On Oct 1, 2019 Verizon turned on the first $20B 5G mmWave network with extraordinary hopes. The actual early results have been dismal. Good engineers tell me that will change. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.