Dave 20GBPS
It does work! Throughout the show, two large screens showed live data from a 1 GHz mmWave + 4x4 LTE MIMO system. The results were consistently between 19 gigabits and 21 gigabits. About 1 gigabit was LTE, an example of the gigabit LTE that will be sweeping the industry in the next two years. The mmWave gear ran consistently at 19 or 20 gigabits. While Huawei said nothing about availability, I infer 2020 is the target for working production equipment for mobile.

Not one of the dozens of network engineers I've spoken to lately disagreed with Ted Rappaport's conclusion "It will work." While we have no field results on millimeter wave to consumers, there are decades of results of mmWave for backhaul, high-speed point to point wireless, and heavy military usage.

 

The 20 gig mmWave is the headline, but also note the consistent gigabit from LTE. As you can see from the picture, Huawei did something I haven't seen from anyone else. The signals were combined, live, At that moment, the mmWave was running at 19.9 gig; the central meter showed they combined for 21 Gbps. Obstacles and distance can bring down the speed 90%+ and the LTE boost will be a major improvement. Softbank Japan and China Mobile are ordering thousands of Massive MIMO base stations, which can be configured to support several gigabits in LTE bands. There are intriguing possibilities.

On the floor I saw an 8 x 2 MIMO already deployed in Kuwait that improved performance 50% in congested areas. I saw the 2 Gig LTE being tested at BT. Customers showed great demos of VR, robot manufacturing, and drones.

I learned that Softbank Japan and China Mobile are ordering thousands of Massive MIMO base stations. Telus CTO Ibrahim Gedeon reminded us that small cell HetNet and SON as well as other less publicized advances shouldn't be forgotten. That inspired my Eightfold Way piece. Softbank and China Mobile told me Massive MIMO was working so well they were ready to order thousands. http://bit.ly/8foldway

The 20 gig Huawei system has more than enough capacity for what Verizon is planning. The NSA is still blocking Huawei systems from the U.S., probably because Huawei refuses to cooperate with the U.S. three letter agencies. VZ will have to choose between Ericsson, Nokia, and Samsung, the vendors approved for the U.S. There are no U.S. companies that can build a 5G network, although Rappaport and others at U.S. universities are doing some of the world's best 5G research.

There are lots of hurdles to come, especially on mobile. The cost, the market, and the timing are unknown. NTT CTO Seizo Onoe is probably right; deployment of mmWave gear will likely be modest until 2022-2024. Dozens of major issues need to be decided in standards, some not before 2019 or 2020. Hundreds of technical problems need to be solved. Early mmWave phone chips will likely require an order of magnitude more power and eat batteries. It will probably take two more iterations of Moore's Law to bring chip power demands and cost down to where we are are today in LTE. There are over 10,000 engineers working to solve the technical problems and I'm sure they will. The impossible takes a little longer.

Pepper the robot dancing Gangnam style was the hit of the show. 

Important note: Huawei paid expenses for me and videographer Jennie Bourne to the event.

dave ask

Newsfeed

Vivo is selling new the iQOO 5G premium quality phone for US$536.

Lei Jun Xiaomi "5G to have explosive growth starting from Q2 2020"5G to have explosive growth starting from Q2 2020" I say sooner

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps

CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon.

Bharti in India has lost 45M customers who did not want to pay the minimum USS2/month. It's shutting down 3G to free some spectrum for 4G. It is cutting capex, dangerous when the 12 gigabytes/month of use continues to rise.

Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  

China has over 50,000 upgraded base stations and may have more than 200,000 by yearend 2019. The growth is astonishing and about to accelerate. China will have more 5G than North America and Europe combined for several years.

5G phone prices are down to $580 in China from Oppo. Headed under $300 in 2020 and driving demand.

No one believed me when I wrote in May, 90% of Huawei U.S. purchases can be rapidly replaced and that Huawei would survive and thrive. Financial results are in, with 23% growth and increased phone sales. It is spending $17B on research in 2019, up > 10%. 

5G phones spotted from Sharp and Sony

NTT DOCOMO will begin "pre-commercial service Sept 20 with over 100 live bases. Officially, the commercial start is 2020.

 More newsfeed

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Welcome  1,800,000 Koreans bought 5G in the first four months. The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80+% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.