CEO McAdam in 2016 carefully said the decision hadn't been made. In fall 2017, he told Wall Street Verizon hasn't budgeted any increased spending for 5G even in 2019. He has good reason to be coy. Verizon and the Euro CEOs constantly use the (often claimed) high spending needed for 5G as a reason for regulators to be weak and governments provide subsidies. NTT DOCOMO CTO Seizo Inoe and many others planning the networks see little if any capex increase.

So I was surprised when I discovered Verizon VP Charla Rath in spring 2016 wrote, "Just as Verizon invested billions to be the first mobile carrier to deploy our world leading  4G LTE network, we plan to do the same for 5G. Sanyogita Shamsunder, Verizon’s Director of Wireless and Technology Strategy, outlined this commitment during the opening panel."

Rath also wrote, "We have already begun field testing 5G, and will launch some level of commercial deployment in 2017." That looks unlikely as I write in November 2017 but they are close.

I probably was the first to say "Verizon is actively building the mmWave network." I inferred from their announced fiber plans that the decision has already been made. There's loads of evidence for that, but what convinced me was Verizon announced a $5-10B fiber build across the country. It would be stupid to spend so much unless they were deploying hundreds of thousands of 5G small cells. The people running Verizon are not stupid. 

Verizon has already deployed hundreds of 5G cells, per the CEO. Unlike most incumbent telcos, they do not cover most of the U.S. In ~70% of the U.S., they see the opportunity to win customers away from the local telco and cableco.

AT&T also intends to go fast on deploying 5G fixed. They see a land grab coming: If Verizon or AT&T builds first, they are likely to win so many customers the other will probably not be able to get to breakeven. 

Surprisingly, AT&T is looking at rural sites. Most assume the short reach of mmWave will limit it to dense areas. But the 8% of the U.S. that can't get cable modems are a very promising target. T would be bringing in 500-1000 meg of 5G fixed to compete against local telcos rarely offering more than 25 meg. In many cases, 3 meg DSL or satellite is the best available.

mmWave actually covers a large area when you have line of sight. (Think tower in the midwest Plains.) Ted Rappaport, The Father of 5G mmWave, demonstrated he could detect a 73 GHz signal 11 kilometers away from their transmitter, a carefully aligned antenna 110 meters above average terrain. 

dave ask

@davescomm

Rethinking Jan 27: Coronavirus could invalidate all projections. I reported on AIDS for 2 years. This could be worse because it spreads in air. Let us hope and pray.

Details on all 5G phones, as prices drop to $285 ** All actual 5G networks worldwide ** Facebook ordered to repost Italian fascist page. ** Apple China sales down 35%** Qorvo sees 300M 5G 2020 & 750M 2023 mmWave <10%

** Bharti demands India Gov more than double prices and enforce cartel. Sunil Mittal "Situation is dire. It is a matter of survival for everyone." ** Wi-Fi 6 meets ITU 5G criteria @stephenjcrowley ** Samsung $8B for Chinese memory plants ** Morgan paying billions for Altice fiber

Dec 10 Sprint bringing $300-500 5G phones to US 2020. Nokia, Lenovo, HMD ** H., Apple, and AMD doing 5 nm test runs on TSMC's 5 nm. Early results are 15-30% better than 7 nm ** AT&T low-band 5G built to >65% US. Speeds slower than 4G at launch. ** 

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps ** CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon. ** Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  

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Welcome  Asia is installing hundreds of thousands of 5G radios and adding 5G subs by the tens of millions. The west is far behind. 200,000,000 in 2020

The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

I'm Dave Burstein, Editor. I've been reporting telecom since 1999. I love to hear from readers and say thank you when you find an error. daveb@dslprime.com

Also see

analysisbranch.com,

fastnet.news

huaweireport.com