Small Cell Network 320
Small cells: fiber: Exchange: Cloud RAN: Core: Internet or PSTN. I believe Verizon has made the decision to spend ~$20B and add enough small cells to cover 1/3rd to 1/2 of the U.S. The major construction will be from 2019 to 2022. 

At the edge, 100,000-300,000 new small cells will provide both LTE and 5G service to perhaps 40M homes. They expect to do well enough to extend the build across the United States. All will have 5G millimeter wave fixed access. It will use the 28 GHz band and TDD coding. Likely speed will be ~ 5 gigabits, peak, shared. Most homes will be able to access a gigabit almost all the time because generally the cell will be lightly loaded. 

Latency will be under 10 milliseconds but not the 1 ms highly touted. Putting the intelligence back in the cloud makes 1 ms impractical. To get 1 ms, a massive network of "edge computing" would be needed. Neither Verizon nor any other telco has publicly committed to building that edge computing net. The cost would be massive and the market for 1 ms isn't apparent. Virtual reality is designing for 10 ms. Even the connected car doesn't need to go that low. João Barros of Veniam tells me, "3ms latency is enough for even the most stringent connected vehicle applications." 

When I saw both Verizon and AT&T planning cloud RAN, I knew 1 ms wasn't happening for a decade or more.

 

 

Verizon Small Cell
Verizon Small Cell

 

 

 

dave ask

Newsfeed

CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon.

Bharti in India has lost 45M customers who did not want to pay the minimum US#2/month. It's shutting down 3G to free some spectrum for 4G. It is cutting capex, dangerous when the 12 gigabytes/month of use continues to rise.

Huawei in 6 days sold 300,000 5G Mate 20s. Delivery begins on 8/16. 

China has over 50,000 upgraded base stations and may have more than 200,000 by yearend 2019. The growth is astonishing and about to accelerate. China will have more 5G than North America and Europe combined for several years.

5G phone prices are down to $580 in China from Oppo. Headed under $300 in 2020 and driving demand.

No one believed me when I wrote in May, 90% of Huawei U.S. purchases can be rapidly replaced and that Huawei would survive and thrive. Financial results are in, with 23% growth and increased phone sales. It is spending $17B on research in 2019, up > 10%. 

5G phones spotted from Sharp and Sony

NTT DOCOMO will begin "pre-commercial service Sept 20 with over 100 live bases. Officially, the commercial start is 2020.

 More newsfeed

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Welcome  1,800,000 Koreans bought 5G in the first four months. The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80+% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.