VZ 5G Existing vs new cells 230A gigabit median at 600 meters. A year ago, most experts expected mmWave to be limited to 150-250 meters. Earlier this year, Verizon mentioned good results at 400 meters. Now, Verizon is often seeing excellent results to 600 meters and further. A gigabit is common. 

The result is that far fewer new cells are required. The green dots are where Verizon already has cells. As you can see, there are few red dots for new cells. The cost is coming in so low Verizon does not expect to raise their capital spending. "Management stated that overall capital expenditures would not change substantially during the 5G rollout as internal resources are shifted from the 4G to the 5G platform."

It will be fixed only in 2018, with Verizon promising to support mobile as soon as the technology is available. Intel and Qualcomm expect 5G phones in production in 2019.

Ted Rappaport of NYU has long had an alternate "channel model" that predicted higher speeds, now confirmed. 

Ted in 2013 startled the industry with his article, Millimeter wave mobile communications for 5G cellular: It will work!” Now that Verizon is proving it does work, Ted has earned his Marconi Prize. In the chart, the NYU model is in blue and the traditional model in red.

Verizon will do five cities late in 2018, starting with Sacramento, an AT&T town. They look to sell triple play (including video and voice) or quadruple play (adding mobile.) They promise competitive prices, which will be required to reach their goal of 30% market share.

NYU model 230Both Verizon and AT&T expect whoever covers a city first will win 20% to 40% away from cable or DSL. It's a land grab situation, which I expect will inspire AT&T to move fast as well. 

Verizon will probably choose two vendors among Ericsson, Nokia, and Samsung. Samsung had few 4G builds outside of Asia, but has been investing heavily for half a decade. Samsung researchers, led by Wonil Roh, are leaders in the field. Ericsson & Nokia are hoping Verizon is just using Samsung as a stalking horse and will ultimately split the contract between the two of them. I'm sure intense negotiations are underway to complement the extensive testing.

I was surprised Calix and Adtran didn't rise on the news. They are supplying Verizon with NG-PON2, Verizon's 40 gigabit choice for backhaul. NG-PON2 is the choice of advanced telcos in the west. In China, it will be 25 & 50G Ethernet instead.

Here's the pr.

Verizon to launch 5G residential broadband services in up to 5 markets in 2018

 

NEWS PROVIDED BY

Verizon 

Nov 29, 2017, 16:09 ET


  • NEW YORK, Nov. 29, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Leading the industry with the first commercial application of next-generation broadband services, Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE, Nasdaq: VZ) today announced it will launch wireless residential broadband services in three to five U.S. markets in 2018.

     

    As a first application of fifth-generation – or 5G -- wireless, these services will use radio signals, rather than copper or fiber cables, to provide customers with unprecedented wireless speeds for Internet access. As 5G continues to evolve, customers will benefit from a wide array of services – including broadband, mobile and IoT (Internet of things) -- and the necessary bandwidth and low latency for 3D and virtual reality applications.

    Verizon's first commercial launch is planned to be in Sacramento, Calif., in the second half of 2018. Details of that launch, and the announcement of additional markets, will be provided at a later date.

    Verizon has successfully trialed 5G residential applications in 11 markets in 2017. The commercial launch is based on customer experience and on Verizon's confidence in new technology powered by millimeter-wave spectrum.

    Verizon estimates the market opportunity for initial 5G residential broadband services to be approximately 30 million households nationwide.

    The 5G commercial launch will not have a material impact on Verizon's consolidated capital expenditures in 2018. The company expects its full-year 2018 capital spending program to be consistent with the past several years.

    "This is a landmark announcement for customers and investors who have been waiting for the 5G future to become a reality," said Hans Vestberg, Verizon president of Global Networks and Chief Technology Officer. "We appreciate our strong ecosystem partners for their passion and technological support in helping us drive forward with 5G industry standards, for both fixed and mobile applications. The targeted initial launches we are announcing today will provide a strong framework for accelerating 5G's future deployment on the global standards."

     

     

    dave askOn Oct 1, Verizon will turn on the first $20B 5G mmWave network, soon offering a gigabit or close to 30M homes. The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while keeping capex at around 15%.

    The Koreans, Chinese, and almost all Europeans are not doing mmWave in favor of mid-band "5G," with 4G-like performance. Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 4X to 10X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year. I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

    The predicted massive small cell builds are a pipe dream for vendors for at least five years. Verizon expects to reach a quarter of the U.S. without adding additional small cells. 

    In the works: Enrique Blanco and Telefonica's possible mmWave disruption of Germany; Believe it or don't: 5G is cheap because 65% of most cities can be covered by upgrading existing cells; Verizon is ripping out and replacing 200,000 pieces of gear expecting to save half. 

    -------------------

     5G Why Verizon thinks differently and what to do about it is a new report I wrote for STL Partners and their clients.

    STL Partners, a British consulting outfit I respect, commissioned me to ask why. That report is now out. If you're a client, download it here. If not, and corporate priced research is interesting to you, ask me to introduce you to one of the principals.

    It was fascinating work because the answers aren't obvious. Lowell McAdam's company is spending $20B to cover 30M+ homes in the first stage. The progress in low & mid-band, both "4G" and "5G," has been remarkable. In most territories, millimeter wave will not be necessary to meet expected demand.

    McAdam sees a little further. mmWave has 3-4X the capacity of low and mid-band. He sees an enormous marketing advantage: unlimited services, even less congestion, reputation as the best network. Verizon testing found mmWave rate/reach was twice what had been estimated. All prior cost estimates need revision.

    My take: even if mmWave doesn't fit in your current budget, telcos should expand trials and training to be ready as things change. The new cost estimates may be low enough to change your mind.