Gavin Patterson 230At Huawei's London MBBF, BT CEO Gavin Patterson went first, saying, "The business case isn't there." DT CTO Bruno Jacobfeuerborn, adding "For 5G, Deutsche Telekom still has no business models."  FT/Orange SVP Arnaud Vamparys followed with a second agreement.

3,000 miles away, Verizon was finalizing the announcement that they would rush to deploy ~30M homes of 5G mmWave. At NGMN and elsewhere, the top tech people share freely what they know. All are working with essentially the same understanding. How can we explain the different choices?

Verizon landlines cover only about 1/4th of the U.S. They need an offering to compete with cable and DSL.

They believe the new one gig wireless service will win 20-40% of the landline customers. AT&T is thinking the same way and will probably invest to keep up with Verizon.  

The Europeans have a landline offering throughout their territory. Almost all have more customers than the cablecos, which rarely cover the entire country. Verizon expects new revenue from fixed wireless to cover much of the deployment costs. The Europeans will have to pay for the mmWave network with just the mobile revenues.

BT, DT & FT are not alone in their hesitancy. Telefonica’s CTO, Enrico Blanco, didn’t address the subject directly but previously pointed out his “4G” network would do just fine for the expected “5G” applications. The Chinese press is reporting that China Telecom has made the same decision, although China Mobile is moving ahead with 10,000 cells by 2020.

All of these companies will begin deploying in 2019 & 2020 because it's a political necessity. Expect plenty of hype and pr. They also need to train their people and develop systems for when they do build. 

But the current plans of these companies is to go slow until 2022-2024,

 

dave ask

@davescomm

Rethinking Jan 27: Coronavirus could invalidate all projections. I reported on AIDS for 2 years. This could be worse because it spreads in air. Let us hope and pray.

Details on all 5G phones, as prices drop to $285 ** All actual 5G networks worldwide ** Facebook ordered to repost Italian fascist page. ** Apple China sales down 35%** Qorvo sees 300M 5G 2020 & 750M 2023 mmWave <10%

** Bharti demands India Gov more than double prices and enforce cartel. Sunil Mittal "Situation is dire. It is a matter of survival for everyone." ** Wi-Fi 6 meets ITU 5G criteria @stephenjcrowley ** Samsung $8B for Chinese memory plants ** Morgan paying billions for Altice fiber

Dec 10 Sprint bringing $300-500 5G phones to US 2020. Nokia, Lenovo, HMD ** H., Apple, and AMD doing 5 nm test runs on TSMC's 5 nm. Early results are 15-30% better than 7 nm ** AT&T low-band 5G built to >65% US. Speeds slower than 4G at launch. ** 

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps ** CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon. ** Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  

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Welcome  Asia is installing hundreds of thousands of 5G radios and adding 5G subs by the tens of millions. The west is far behind. 200,000,000 in 2020

The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

I'm Dave Burstein, Editor. I've been reporting telecom since 1999. I love to hear from readers, especially when you find an error. daveb@dslprime.com

Also see

analysisbranch.com,

fastnet.news

huaweireport.com