Nokias chosen use cases 230

According to a thoughtful 47-page analysis by the world's #3 manufacturer of 5G, Nokia. Looking at the top eight 5G use cases, Nokia confirms

"All are feasible with 4G."

 The inference: 5G is not essential for most of the progress in these areas*. As I looked further into each of these areas, it became clear none of them are likely to drive demand growth sufficient to raise carrier revenue significantly. **

5G will be good for the industry because it will lower costs and increase capacity, not because of new uses. In addition, most consumers believe the myth of 5G miracles and are likely to buy. One million Koreans signed on in the first two months.

5G phone prices will drop significantly sometime in 2020; China Mobile and Huawei predict prices from US$150 to US$300. At that point, I expect very rapid demand growth.

As Dean Bubley points out, we already would be seeing in the 4G era significant growth in any of these applications which have high demand in the near term. We aren't. Actually, the rate of wireless traffic growth in the West has been falling. Cisco, Ericsson, and your author expect the growth rate to continue to mostly fall. 

My guess is this will not change significantly past the 4-5 years of this report. The rate of technology change communications is so high any projections past 3-5 years are likely to be wrong. 

In particular, autonomous cars and video do not appear likely to require bandwidth that would break the trendline. Several applications likely to grow slowly are worth cultivating for future possibilities, especially AR & VR. 

Here are two illustrations. The first is from STL, showing estimates of low growth. Almost all analysts have similar conclusions. The second is the Nokia chart, larger.

*The inference would not be true if the 4G networks will run out of capacity. Fortunately, 4G technology already deploying can raise capacity 10X to 25X at a reasonable cost. Traffic growth is slowing significantly, except in China and India. Cisco estimates wireless traffic growth in the U.S. will fall to 30%/year by 2021. I have many confirming datapoints. Conclusion: Within today's carrier capital budgets, almost all Western carriers can supply the capacity needed through at least the middle of next decade. 

**The possible exception is fixed wireless, especially where Verizon will offer gigabit mmWave. In most countries, fixed wireless will likely be limited.

 

 STL slow growth chart 650

Nokias chosen use cases 650

 

 

 

dave ask

@davescomm

Rethinking Jan 27: Coronavirus could invalidate all projections. I reported on AIDS for 2 years. This could be worse because it spreads in air. Let us hope and pray.

Details on all 5G phones, as prices drop to $285 ** All actual 5G networks worldwide ** Facebook ordered to repost Italian fascist page. ** Apple China sales down 35%** Qorvo sees 300M 5G 2020 & 750M 2023 mmWave <10%

** Bharti demands India Gov more than double prices and enforce cartel. Sunil Mittal "Situation is dire. It is a matter of survival for everyone." ** Wi-Fi 6 meets ITU 5G criteria @stephenjcrowley ** Samsung $8B for Chinese memory plants ** Morgan paying billions for Altice fiber

Dec 10 Sprint bringing $300-500 5G phones to US 2020. Nokia, Lenovo, HMD ** H., Apple, and AMD doing 5 nm test runs on TSMC's 5 nm. Early results are 15-30% better than 7 nm ** AT&T low-band 5G built to >65% US. Speeds slower than 4G at launch. ** 

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps ** CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon. ** Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  

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Welcome  Asia is installing hundreds of thousands of 5G radios and adding 5G subs by the tens of millions. The west is far behind. 200,000,000 in 2020

The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

I'm Dave Burstein, Editor. I've been reporting telecom since 1999. I love to hear from readers, especially when you find an error. daveb@dslprime.com

Also see

analysisbranch.com,

fastnet.news

huaweireport.com