In the first 15 days of August, Huawei sold in China 1 million Mate 20 5Gs for US$900. ZTE is also selling 5G in China, with 6 more phones soon to hit the market. Oppo has announced a 5G price of US$580 for what looks like an excellent phone.

Sales have been growing month to month in Korea, now past 2 million. KT has estimated 10% of Koreans (about 5 million) will buy a 5G phone in 2019 and 30% by the end of 2020. I doubt China will go quite that fast, but the number will certainly be large.

There's every reason to expect the Chinese subscription figure to grow rapidly. The current plans are 100,000 to 200,000 radios in 2019, which will cover important parts of major cities. Beijing is mostly covered inside the 5th Ring Road already. 600,000-800,000 radios in 2020 will cover at least 50% of the population and possibly 75%.   

I'm calling the December 2019 and December 2020 figures "guesses," not estimates. They could be low.

 

dave ask

@davescomm

Rethinking Jan 27: Coronavirus could invalidate all projections. I reported on AIDS for 2 years. This could be worse because it spreads in air. Let us hope and pray.

Details on all 5G phones, as prices drop to $285 ** All actual 5G networks worldwide ** Facebook ordered to repost Italian fascist page. ** Apple China sales down 35%** Qorvo sees 300M 5G 2020 & 750M 2023 mmWave <10%

** Bharti demands India Gov more than double prices and enforce cartel. Sunil Mittal "Situation is dire. It is a matter of survival for everyone." ** Wi-Fi 6 meets ITU 5G criteria @stephenjcrowley ** Samsung $8B for Chinese memory plants ** Morgan paying billions for Altice fiber

Dec 10 Sprint bringing $300-500 5G phones to US 2020. Nokia, Lenovo, HMD ** H., Apple, and AMD doing 5 nm test runs on TSMC's 5 nm. Early results are 15-30% better than 7 nm ** AT&T low-band 5G built to >65% US. Speeds slower than 4G at launch. ** 

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps ** CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon. ** Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  

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Welcome  Asia is installing hundreds of thousands of 5G radios and adding 5G subs by the tens of millions. The west is far behind. 200,000,000 in 2020

The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

I'm Dave Burstein, Editor. I've been reporting telecom since 1999. I love to hear from readers and say thank you when you find an error. daveb@dslprime.com

Also see

analysisbranch.com,

fastnet.news

huaweireport.com