Could easily be 25%. T-Mobile as part of the Sprint deal committed to selling fixed wireless to 8% of the US. It has guaranteed that 90% of Americans will see mobile broadband service at speeds of at least 100Mbps if the deal is approved.

Goldman Sachs estimates Verizon will sell fixed to about 8% of Americans by then. That's ambitious. It's based on Verizon selling 25% of the market from cable in the ~30M homes Verizon will pass. Most are in the 70% of the US where Verizon has no good landline offering. It is pricing aggressively at $50-70, well under cable's price and offering much higher upstream. Verizon is still moving full speed ahead on mmWave, although Consumer CEO Ronan Dunne recently confirmed many consumers in other locations will be connected at lower speeds in mid and low-band spectrum.

CEO Randall Stephenson of AT&T, who will have a great deal of mmWave capacity to sell in 2021, has specifically said he will have a fixed offering. AT&T does not have landlines in over 60% of the US so will almost definitely sell fixed wireless. It has released no numbers yet, but certainly has plans well into the millions.

If T-Mobile-Sprint goes through, Dish is committed to covering 70% of the US by 2023. The primary product will be fixed wireless and Charlie Ergen is betting $10B he will sell a lot of it. He certainly will sell enough to push up this estimate.

If the merger doesn't go through, Sprint will have a massive amount of unsold capacity from the 160 MHz at 2.5 GHz it is lighting across the country. They would be foolish not to sell fixed aggressively. Masa-san is not a fool.

Starry has raised $100M. C Spire, with 1 million mobile customers, is aggressively selling its version of fixed. Small wireless ISPs have over 1 million connections.

I consider anything 4-5 years out a guess, but in this case it is well informed.

 

  

 

dave ask

@davescomm

Rethinking Jan 27: Coronavirus could invalidate all projections. I reported on AIDS for 2 years. This could be worse because it spreads in air. Let us hope and pray.

Details on all 5G phones, as prices drop to $285 ** All actual 5G networks worldwide ** Facebook ordered to repost Italian fascist page. ** Apple China sales down 35%** Qorvo sees 300M 5G 2020 & 750M 2023 mmWave <10%

** Bharti demands India Gov more than double prices and enforce cartel. Sunil Mittal "Situation is dire. It is a matter of survival for everyone." ** Wi-Fi 6 meets ITU 5G criteria @stephenjcrowley ** Samsung $8B for Chinese memory plants ** Morgan paying billions for Altice fiber

Dec 10 Sprint bringing $300-500 5G phones to US 2020. Nokia, Lenovo, HMD ** H., Apple, and AMD doing 5 nm test runs on TSMC's 5 nm. Early results are 15-30% better than 7 nm ** AT&T low-band 5G built to >65% US. Speeds slower than 4G at launch. ** 

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps ** CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon. ** Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  

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Welcome  Asia is installing hundreds of thousands of 5G radios and adding 5G subs by the tens of millions. The west is far behind. 200,000,000 in 2020

The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

I'm Dave Burstein, Editor. I've been reporting telecom since 1999. I love to hear from readers and say thank you when you find an error. daveb@dslprime.com

Also see

analysisbranch.com,

fastnet.news

huaweireport.com