Josh Builta of IHS Markit could be right

"Within the next few years, prices will fall to between the $700 to $800 range."

I added the question mark because the Chinese price for good 5G phones is already down to US$536. China Mobile and others expect 2020 prices under $300. It would be very surprising if US prices did not come down further and faster than Builla predicts.

Perhaps the US carriers will find a way to keep prices high, I hope not. 

From Bonilta:

 

 

Nearly everyone expects to pay more money for 5G smartphones—but the cost of the initial wave of phones is dramatically exceeding expectations, with the price premium as much as 29 times higher than many consumers anticipate, according to a new IHS Markit survey examining consumer perceptions regarding the technology.

A total of 91 percent of survey respondents said they expect to pay more for 5G devices compared to existing 4G LTE smartphones. Three quarters of respondents stated they foresee paying an additional 10 to 25 percent for a 5G-capable phone. With the average sales price (ASP) of a smartphone amounting to $319 in 2019, a 10 percent hike in pricing would add $32 to the cost, while a 25 percent increase would boost it by $80.

However, the actual pricing of the first wave of 5G phones is far higher. For instance, Samsung’s S10 5G phone is retail priced at $1,300, a 335 percent premium compared to the $388 average for the company's existing 4G smartphone models. In dollar terms, this would represent a $912 increase in price, an order of magnitude higher than consumers’ expectations.

It should be noted that this comparison is of a flagship smartphone price against an industry ASP. In another example, the Huawei Mate 20 X 5G smartphone carries a retail price of $1,200, a more than 400 percent premium compared to $295 for the company’s 4G models.

“The 5G market is primed for massive growth,"

dave ask

Newsfeed

Vivo is selling new the iQOO 5G premium quality phone for US$536.

Lei Jun Xiaomi "5G to have explosive growth starting from Q2 2020"5G to have explosive growth starting from Q2 2020" I say sooner

Verizon CEO Ronan Dunne: >1/2 VZ 5G "will approximate to a good 4G service" Midband in "low hundreds" Mbps

CFO John Stephens says AT&T is going to cut capex soon.

Bharti in India has lost 45M customers who did not want to pay the minimum USS2/month. It's shutting down 3G to free some spectrum for 4G. It is cutting capex, dangerous when the 12 gigabytes/month of use continues to rise.

Huawei in 16 days sold 1,000,000 5G Mate 20s.  

China has over 50,000 upgraded base stations and may have more than 200,000 by yearend 2019. The growth is astonishing and about to accelerate. China will have more 5G than North America and Europe combined for several years.

5G phone prices are down to $580 in China from Oppo. Headed under $300 in 2020 and driving demand.

No one believed me when I wrote in May, 90% of Huawei U.S. purchases can be rapidly replaced and that Huawei would survive and thrive. Financial results are in, with 23% growth and increased phone sales. It is spending $17B on research in 2019, up > 10%. 

5G phones spotted from Sharp and Sony

NTT DOCOMO will begin "pre-commercial service Sept 20 with over 100 live bases. Officially, the commercial start is 2020.

 More newsfeed

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Welcome  1,800,000 Koreans bought 5G in the first four months. The demand is there, and most of the technology works. Meanwhile, the hype is unreal. Time for reporting closer to the truth.

The estimates you hear about 5G costs are wildly exaggerated. Verizon is building the most advanced wireless network while reducing capex. Deutsche Telekom and Orange/France Telecom also confirm they won't raise capex.

Massive MIMO in either 4G or "5G" can increase capacity 3X to 7X, including putting 2.3 GHz to 4.2 GHz to use. Carrier Aggregation, 256 QAM, and other tools double and triple that. Verizon sees cost/bit dropping 40% per year.

Cisco & others see traffic growth slowing to 30%/year or less.  I infer overcapacity almost everywhere.  

Believe it or not, 80+% of 5G (mid-band) for several years will be slower than good 4G, which is more developed.